What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and validate an accurate prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults using easily obtained, self-reported measures.

February 14, 2006JAMA

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Index for 4-Year Mortality in Older Adults

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Authors

SLSei J. LeeTufts University

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Implication

Cohort study demonstrates a 12-item prognostic index accurately stratifies 4-year mortality risk in older adults, highlighting the value of combining comorbid and functional measures.

Key Points

To develop and validate an accurate prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults using easily obtained, self-reported measures.
Conducted a population-based cohort study using the 1998 Health and Retirement Study, including 11,701 community-dwelling US adults aged >50 years in the development cohort and 8,009 in the validation cohort.
Evaluated self-reported demographic factors, comorbid diseases, and functional limitations to construct a weighted risk score predicting mortality through December 31, 2002.
Identified 12 independent mortality predictors: age, male sex, 6 comorbid conditions (diabetes, cancer, lung disease, heart failure, smoking, body mass index <25), and 4 functional limitations (bathing, walking several blocks, managing money, pushing large objects).
During 4-year follow-up, mortality was 12% (1,361 deaths) in development and 13% (1,072 deaths) in validation cohorts, with validation risk ranging from <4% (0–5 points) to 64% (≥14 points).
The prognostic score demonstrated high discrimination, achieving a c-statistic of 0.84 in the development cohort and 0.82 in the validation cohort.

Cite This Study

Sei J. Lee (2006) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fea87ac28c7d12f5f0cb7f https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.295.7.801

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Implication

Cohort study demonstrates a 12-item prognostic index accurately stratifies 4-year mortality risk in older adults, highlighting the value of combining comorbid and functional measures.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Index for 4-Year Mortality in Older Adults

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Index for 4-Year Mortality in Older Adults

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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