From Innovation to Impact: Econometric Evidence on the Effects of Agricultural Technologies on Wheat Productivity in Morocco

Wheat production in Morocco faces increasing pressure from climate variability and structural constraints that continue to limit productivity gains. Despite substantial investments on modern agricultural technologies, national yield performance remains highly volatile raising questions about the actual effectiveness of these innovations in rainfed systems. This study provides a new empirical assessment of the determinants of wheat yields by integrating climatic factors, long-term production dynamics, and technological adoption within a comprehensive econometric framework. Using annual data for durum and soft wheat, the analysis confirms the central role of precipitation in shaping yield outcomes, while revealing that technology adoption, when assessed at the national scale, exhibits a negative and statistically significant relation with productivity. This counter-intuitive result suggests that technologies currently promoted may not be sufficiently adapted to Morocco’s heterogeneous agro-ecological environments, and that their aggregate effect masks substantial regional disparities. The findings highlight an urgent need to shift from uniform national strategies to region-specific innovation pathways, supported by stronger research–extension linkages and climate-resilient practices. By documenting how climate conditions, structural trends, and technology interact to shape wheat performance, this study offers evidence-based guidance for designing more effective policies to secure cereal productivity under accelerating climatic uncertainty.