Greenhouse vs. Field: How Is Climate Change Reshaping the Productivity Resilience of Vegetables in China?

Mitigation and adaptation are key strategies for addressing climate change, with important implications for the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems. Among various adaptation measures, greenhouse cultivation has been widely adopted in vegetable production. This article evaluates its effectiveness by comparing the impacts of climate change on greenhouse and field vegetable production in China using city-level panel data from 1990 to 2017. To better isolate climate effects from input adjustments, we employ total factor productivity (TFP) rather than the commonly used yield measure. TFP is estimated using a stochastic frontier approach and then regressed on growing-degree days and other weather variables. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between TFP and temperature and precipitation for field vegetables, while climate variables have no significant effects on greenhouse production. Yield-based measures are found to underestimate the adverse effects of climate change. Projections further indicate substantial declines in field vegetable productivity under future warming. These findings suggest that greenhouse cultivation enhances productivity resilience but may involve trade-offs due to higher energy use. Overall, this article contributes to a more comprehensive evaluation of climate adaptation from a sustainability perspective.