Shows improved food security in China with greenhouse farming systems, suggesting enhanced efficiency by 2050.
Greenhouse cultivation substantially enhances land-use efficiency and food security worldwide. However, regional variations in farming systems and their socioeconomic impacts remain poorly quantified. Through large-scale surveys of smallholder farms (n = 246) and environmental sampling (n = 1,230) across China, we determined that this sector can deliver 37.2% of the national vegetable output on only 1.4% of China’s arable land, and achieve yields up to six times higher than those in open-field systems. We identify seventeen distinct greenhouse farming systems varying in five adaptation strategies: agroclimatic optimization, regional specialization, precise land use, use of marginal soils, and soil sustainability practices. Scenario modeling shows that by 2050, strategic production relocation to climatically suitable regions and optimization of these farming systems could further enhance land use efficiency compared to those in 2022, indicated by a decrease in land area of 7–51% while increasing farmer employment by 20% or 156% without or with considering elderly care policy. Thus, diversified, small-scale farming systems represent a transformative pathway for sustainable intensification, offering scalable solutions to global food security with regional policy support. Greenhouse farming in China produces over one-third of national vegetable output on just 1.4% of arable land and could further improve land-use efficiency and employment by 2050 through optimized regional deployment, based on nationwide farm surveys, environmental sampling, and scenario modeling.
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Dong et al. (2026) studied this question.
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