Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Northeast China: Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Key Drivers

Land-use change substantially contributes to carbon emissions, yet systematic research on complex human–environment interactions in old industrial bases remains scarce. Here, we integrated multi-temporal land-use data and socio-economic statistics from 1990 to 2023 to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of land-use carbon emissions in Northeast China. The land-use transfer matrix, the carbon emission coefficient, exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis (ESTDA), standard deviational ellipses, and modified Kaya–LMDI models were applied. Construction land area expanded by 120%, with its share of total emissions increasing from 87% to 95%. Meanwhile, forest and grassland shrank, reducing their carbon sink capacity and increasing their net carbon emissions 1.9-fold. Spatially, emissions showed a weak global correlation but strong local lock-in (i.e., persistent stability of local spatial patterns over time), with the emission center of gravity shifting southwestward. Economic development was the dominant positive driver (provincial contribution rates: 275–529%), whereas energy intensity was the main mitigating factor (up to −409%). Population loss exerted a slight negative contribution, while energy structure showed only a weak inhibitory effect (−9.1%), reflecting the region’s path-dependent lock-in to fossil fuels. This study provides a scientific basis for differentiated carbon management strategies in Northeast China and analogous regions.