What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and externally validate a clinical prediction model and nomogram that estimates individualized 6-month venous thromboembolism risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

November 1, 2023RMD OpenOpen Access

Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus

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Authors

HYHanxiao YouJiangsu Province Hospital JZJiuliang ZhaoWannan Medical College MZMiaojia ZhangGuangdong General Hospital

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Implication

Cohort study reveals an 11-variable prediction model accurately estimates venous thromboembolism risk in systemic lupus erythematosus, indicating candidates for targeted thromboprophylaxis.

Key Points

To develop and externally validate a clinical prediction model and nomogram that estimates individualized 6-month venous thromboembolism risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.
Analyzed multicenter registry data from the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research group (CSTAR), comprising a development cohort of 4,502 patients (2009–2020) and an external validation cohort of 3,780 patients (2020–2022).
Identified risk predictors using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression to establish the SLE-VTE score and nomogram.
Identified 135 VTE events among 4,502 patients in the development cohort (3.0%) and selected 11 predictors: sex, age, BMI, hyperlipidemia, hypoalbuminemia, CRP, anti-β2GPI antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, renal involvement, nervous system involvement, and hydroxychloroquine use.
Achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.947 in the development cohort (n=4,502) and 0.808 in the external validation cohort (n=3,780).
Established a predicted probability threshold of ≥1.03% to identify high-risk patients warranting annual venous thromboembolism screening and thromboprophylaxis consideration.

Cite This Study

You et al. (2023) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a00181b831589f3542dbc5f https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003568

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Implication

Cohort study reveals an 11-variable prediction model accurately estimates venous thromboembolism risk in systemic lupus erythematosus, indicating candidates for targeted thromboprophylaxis.

Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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