Mitigating farm-gate GHG emissions in low- and middle-income countries: The role of agricultural productivity

Abstract Agriculture significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions while facing increasing climate risks, raising concerns about balancing mitigation and food security. Productivity improvements consistent with Climate-Smart Agriculture are often seen as a way to reconcile this trade-off, but empirical evidence on their effects across sectors and development levels remains limited. This study examines the relationship between agricultural total factor productivity and emissions across farm-gate, crop, and livestock systems in low- to upper-middle-income countries spanning 1993–2021. Results show that population growth and food production are the primary drivers of emissions, reflecting strong production scale effects. In contrast, higher agricultural total factor productivity generally reduces emissions, partially offsetting pressures from increased output. However, this effect varies by income level and sector. Mitigation benefits are strongest in low-income countries and weaken with development, likely due to diminishing efficiency gains and rebound effects. Sectorally, productivity-driven emission reductions are most robust in crop production, moderate at the aggregate farm-gate level, and weakest in livestock systems, likely due to biological constraints. Overall, agricultural productivity growth can mitigates without compromising food security, but its effectiveness depends on sectoral characteristics and stages of economic development. Sector-specific and income-sensitive mitigation strategies should therefore complement policies that promote productivity growth.