A vision for livestock effluent-to-bioenergy synergy in Italy: Spatio-temporal analysis and lean scenarios towards 2035

Agriculture links methane mitigation, water protection, and rural clean energy, yet few tools jointly track livestock nitrogen loads, manure-based biogas potential, and nitrate regulation at local scales. We propose a Computable Governance Framework for Italy that reconciles local livestock effluent management with national bioenergy targets. This framework centralises nitrogen (N) as the binding regulatory constraint, employing a continuous effective limit ( L i ) to quantify management stress across 7822 municipalities, and links spatial readiness with 2035 forecasts to support plant-independent strategic planning under rigid environmental boundaries. Using harmonised livestock statistics (2010–2024), land-use data, and emission factors, we derive annual indicators of nitrogen load, manure-based methane potential, and methane density. In the 2021 baseline, livestock excreted 2.6 × 10 5 t N and generated 4.1 × 10 8 m 3 of methane potential, strongly concentrated in Po Valley dairy–pig belts, while most municipalities remain in low nitrogen-load classes. Spatial clustering of nitrogen pressure and methane potential is pronounced, and a plant-independent readiness index identifies priority municipalities where high nitrogen stress coincides with elevated methane density. Lean AD scenarios (S1–S3) yield increasing gains in energy output, methane mitigation (CO 2 e), ammonia reduction, and targeted compliance improvements, with benefits concentrated in high-readiness zones. LightGBM forecasts show high predictive skill (R 2 > 0.95) and indicate modest national growth but declining NVZ compliance in constrained areas. Overall, the framework integrates nitrogen pressure, AD siting, and explainable municipal forecasts to support manure-management interpretation and governance screening under EU and global climate goals.