Abstract Invasive species pose major threats to agriculture, biodiversity and livelihoods. However, risk assessments are often reactive rather than predictive. The melon thrip ( Thrips palmi Karny) is a regulated quarantine pest native to Southeast Asia that has established in over 50 countries, but its global potential distribution under current and future environmental scenarios remains insufficiently characterized. Using 86 georeferenced occurrence records and six WorldClim bioclimatic variables, we developed and validated a Maxent model to estimate current and future (2081–2100) global habitat suitability for T. palmi . Model performance was strong (Area Under Curve = 0.81, True Skill Statistic = 0.53, Continuous Boyce Index = 0.63). The most influential predictors were precipitation of the wettest month (37.7%), precipitation of the driest month (36.7%) and annual mean temperature (9.7%). Suitable habitat for T. palmi is projected to increase from 4.1% of current global land area to 7.82% by 2081–2100, a 92.8% expansion. The greatest increases are expected to occur in West and East Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Central and South America, alongside poleward expansion into temperate regions of Europe and North America. Our study supports proactive surveillance, phytosanitary regulation and integrated pest management for T. palmi in vulnerable agricultural regions.
Aidoo et al. (2026) studied this question.