BACKGROUND: Surrogates of antiviral efficacy are needed for COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the virological effect of treatment and clinical efficacy as measured by progression to severe disease in outpatients treated for mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: to quantify residual study heterogeneity. FINDINGS: =0% [0-53] on day 3, 0% [0-71] on day 5, and 0% [0-43] on day 7). INTERPRETATION: Despite the aggregation of studies with differing designs, and evidence of risk of bias in some virological outcomes, this review provides evidence that treatment-induced acceleration of viral clearance within the first 5 days after treatment is a potential surrogate of clinical efficacy to prevent hospitalisation with COVID-19. This work supports the use of viral clearance as an early phase clinical trial endpoint of therapeutic efficacy. FUNDING: Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Elias et al. (2024) studied this question.
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