Reference Chart Derived From Post–Stent-Implantation Intravascular Ultrasound Predictors of 6-Month Expected Restenosis on Quantitative Coronary Angiography

BACKGROUND: Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS)-guided stent implantation and the availability of a reference chart to predict the expected in-stent restenosis rate based on operator-dependent IVUS parameters may interactively facilitate optimal stent placement. The use of IVUS guidance protects against undue risks of dissection or rupture. METHODS AND RESULTS: IVUS-determined post-stent-implantation predictors of 6-month in-stent restenosis on quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) were identified by logistic regression analysis. These predictors were used to construct a reference chart that predicts the expected 6-month QCA restenosis rate. IVUS and QCA data were obtained from 3 registries (MUSIC [Multicenter Ultrasound Stenting in Coronaries study], WEST-II [West European Stent Trial II], and ESSEX [European Scimed Stent EXperience]) and 2 randomized in-stent restenosis trials (ERASER [Evaluation of ReoPro And Stenting to Eliminate Restenosis] and TRAPIST [TRApidil vs placebo to Prevent In-STent intimal hyperplasia]). In-stent restenosis was defined as luminal diameter stenosis >50% by QCA. IVUS predictors were minimum and mean in-stent area, stent length, and in-stent diameter. Multiple models were constructed with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The model containing minimum in-stent area and stent length best fit the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. This model was used to construct a reference chart to calculate the expected 6-month restenosis rate. CONCLUSIONS: The expected 6-month in-stent restenosis rate after stent implantation for short lesions in relatively large vessels can be predicted by use of in-stent minimal area (which is inversely related to restenosis) and stent length (which is directly related to restenosis), both of which can be read from a simple reference chart.