Ground motion prediction equations for application to the 2015 Canadian national seismic hazard maps

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and their epistemic uncertainty are a key input to seismic hazard assessments, because the GMPEs specify the expected ground-shaking amplitudes as a function of magnitude and distance. We describe a simple and efficient approach to the definition of GMPEs and their epistemic uncertainty for use in seismic hazard mapping in Canada. The approach defines a lower, central, and upper GMPE for each type of event (eastern crustal, western crustal, interface, inslab, offshore) that contributes to the hazard, by considering alternative published GMPEs and data that may be used to constrain these model choices. The proposed model is being applied in trial seismic hazard maps for Canada, for consideration in the 2015 edition of the National Building Code of Canada.