Abstract (English) This study reconstructs the collective worldviews of sociologically defined groups within the 100 most influential AI figures for 2010–2026. The 100 actors serve as data providers whose public statements and actions are aggregated into group-level syntheses using synthetic worldview reconstruction (SWR) — an LLM-assisted procedure that reconstructs coherent belief systems, operationalized here along 12 worldview dimensions. The reconstructed collective profile suggests a technological messianism with ambivalence structure: high sense of mission and techno-determinism combined with low anthropological valuation and egalitarianism. Longitudinally, the data indicate a transition from utopian techno-optimism to tragic acceleration compulsion. A group-level say-do decomposition reveals a Simpson's paradox: the aggregate gap is indistinguishable from measurement noise, but group-specific gaps are substantial — CEOs show a classical desirability gap, while risk warners exhibit prophetic consistency (articulating feared futures they actively work against). An influence strata analysis confirms that the most powerful actors hold the most intense worldviews, with human appreciation inversely related to influence rank. Four worldview types are identified — Architect, Guardian, Innovator, Liberator — whose inter-group comparisons reveal a power-moderation paradox. The strongest predictors are ideological stance, institutional role, and gender. All findings rest on LLM-generated reconstructions and should be understood as empirically supported hypotheses. Zusammenfassung (Deutsch) Diese Studie rekonstruiert die kollektiven Weltbilder soziologisch definierter Gruppen innerhalb der 100 einflussreichsten Akteure der künstlichen Intelligenz (2010–2026). Die 100 Personen dienen als Datenlieferanten, deren öffentliche Aussagen und Handlungen auf Gruppenebene mittels synthetischer Weltbild-Rekonstruktion (SWR) — ein LLM-gestütztes Verfahren — in kohärente Überzeugungssysteme entlang von 12 Dimensionen aggregiert werden. Das rekonstruierte Kollektivprofil deutet auf einen "technologischen Messianismus mit Ambivalenzstruktur": Hohes Sendungsbewusstsein und Techno-Determinismus kombiniert mit niedriger anthropologischer Wertschätzung und Egalitarismus. Longitudinal zeigen die Daten einen Übergang von utopischem Techno-Optimismus zu tragischem Beschleunigungszwang. Eine Sagen-Handeln-Dekomposition auf Gruppenebene offenbart ein Simpson-Paradox: Die aggregierte Kluft ist von Messrauschen nicht unterscheidbar, aber gruppenspezifische Gaps sind substanziell — CEOs zeigen einen Erwünschtheits-Gap, Risiko-Warner prophetische Konsistenz. Eine Strata-Analyse bestätigt: Die mächtigsten Akteure halten die intensivsten Weltbilder, Menschenwertschätzung steht invers zum Einflussrang. Vier Weltbild-Typen werden identifiziert — Architekt, Hüter, Innovator, Befreier — deren Inter-Gruppen-Vergleiche ein Macht-Gemäßigtheits-Paradox offenbaren. Alle Befunde beruhen auf LLM-generierten Rekonstruktionen und sollten als empirisch gestützte Hypothesen verstanden werden. Note: This is an advanced draft. Major revisions are not excluded. CHANGELOG Changes in 8.0 Source and DOI maintenance: Bibliographic metadata checked against Crossref, SAGE DOI pages, arXiv, PMLR, Zenodo API, and GitHub. Hayes (2025), Nicmanis OpenAI safety URL updated; Zenodo abstract language aligned with the current synthesis-vs-operationalization framing. Build refresh: New Paper A source/PDF set created: English, German, and combined PDF. LaTeX logs contain no undefined citations or references. Changes in 7.0 N=15 independent Opus validation: 15 fully independent single-instance runs (ICC(3,1)=0.847, Mean SD=0.45, D02 perfect agreement across all 15 instances). Establishes IMIIRR as robust psychometric property of the SWR method. Haiku N=30 comparison removed: Runs were not truly independent (shared context). Inter-model comparison identified as desideratum for future work with strict independence criteria. Group-Level Say-Do Decomposition: Added to German version. Simpson paradox, CEO desirability gap, Risk-Warner prophetic consistency, Investor consistency. Validation overview table: Reformatted to fit on one page in both language versions. Statistical power: Updated from desideratum to completed. Batch-1 single measurement confirmed as outlier (3/12 in N=15 CIs, MAE=0.73 to mean). 12 QA measures total: Rating instability, expected-discrepancy, aggregation, cross-modal prediction, anonymization, rating order, instance separation, Anthropic circularity, outlier detection, inversion control, strata comparison, statistical power. Changes in 6.0 Paradigm shift: Individual → Group-level analysis. Terminology: "Synthesis Units" replaces "Töpfe". Self-contained methodology (no companion paper required). SWR as inverse problem with 5-step protocol. Four new validation experiments (G1 run-convergence ICC=0.902, G5 cross-modal prediction 72% confirmed, G6 expected-discrepancy control, G8 aggregation comparison). Anonymization robustness test (r=0.987, MAE=0.33). Systematic cleanup: 7 fabricated claims removed, 90 references verified. Repository reorganized, 29 English translations added.
Lukas Geiger (Sat,) studied this question.