Escalation Pattern Analysis (EPA): A Trajectory-Based Early Warning Framework for Lethality Risk in Intimate Partner Violence (IPV)

Escalation Pattern Analysis (EPA) is a trajectory-based early-warning framework developed to address intimate partner violence (IPV). EPA systematically identifies behavioral escalation and convergence patterns that elevate the risk of severe harm beyond thresholds for inaction, supporting anticipatory and preventive decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Drawing on coercive control theory, feminist criminology, femicide timeline research, danger assessment literature, and intelligence-informed threat assessment, EPA conceptualizes escalation along three dynamic axes: Frequency, Intensity, and Inhibitory Decline, the latter representing the progressive erosion of psychological, social, and institutional restraint that accelerates escalation despite intervention. These dimensions are examined in relation to temporal patterns of change, enabling identification of behavioral momentum, compression of incidents over time, and diminishing regulatory effectiveness that may signal increasing lethality risk before statutory high-risk markers are evident. This paper introduces EPA as a staged framework. Stage 1 establishes its conceptual foundations and theoretical coherence. Stage 2 positions EPA as a non-scoring, trajectory-based early-warning analytic model that preserves sensitivity to behavioral change over time by treating thresholds as prompts for interpretive review rather than categorical risk determinations. Five applied scenarios illustrate diverse escalation pathways, including coercive control, stalking, financial entrapment, and sexualized violence, demonstrating that lethality risk can develop even in the absence of frequent or overt physical assaults. EPA is not intended as a translational framework to augment structured professional judgment, early intervention, and multi-agency safeguarding. Stage 3 introduces an initial operational trial framework designed to explore EPA’s interpretive applicability within safeguarding contexts. By foregrounding trajectory, convergence, and inhibitory decline, EPA addresses key limitations of incident-focused assessments and provides a foundation for future operational testing and empirical evaluation.