Serum progesterone measurement on the day of fresh embryo transfer and its correlation with pregnancy success rates: A prospective analysis

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

week of pregnancy. A ROC curve was constructed to identify the best cutoff point correlated with higher CPR. Multivariate analysis evaluated predictive variables of CPR and P4 concentration. P4 levels showed no significant differences between pregnant and non-pregnant patients (67.12 ± 31.1 ng/mL vs. 64.17 ± 61.76, p = 0.7465). The cutoff point correlated with higher CPR was P4 ≥ 28.9 ng/mL (AUC 0.5654). Women's age (OR = 0.878; 95 % CI 0.774-0.995) and top-quality embryo transfer (OR = 2.89; 95 % CI 1.148-7.316) were associated with CPR. Women's age ≥ 40 years (OR = 0.0956; 95 % CI 0.0156-0.5851), poor response to COS (OR = 0.0964; 95 % CI 0.0155-0.5966), and follicles ≥ 10 mm (OR = 1.465; 95 % CI 1.013-2.117) were associated with the cutoff point. As the ROC curve was unsatisfactory, P4 ≥ 28.9 ng/mL should not be used to infer gestational success. In fresh ET, P4 concentration may merely reflect a woman's age and individual response to COS rather than being a reliable CPR predictor.