Predicting Peak Discharge from Gradually Breached Embankment Dam

Two nonlinear mathematical models are presented to predict peak discharge from a breached embankment dam based on evaluation of measured outflows from 41 dam failures. Reported outflow rates from these failures have been examined carefully for accuracy and are believed to be reliable. The first model is purely empirical, while the second is based on a semitheoretical approach that reduces the maximum possible peak discharge that would be produced by instantaneous formation of a breach having prescribed dimensions. Results given by the models are compared to those from other breach peak discharge calculation methods and are shown to produce considerably more accurate predictions of peak discharge from breached embankment dams.