Putin, the State, and War: The Causes of Russia’s Near Abroad Assertion Revisited∗+

Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and meddling in eastern Ukraine are the latest signs of Russia’s increasingly assertive behavior in the post-Soviet space. Not surprisingly, Moscow’s actions have become the source of much debate. This article maps the fast-growing literature on the subject and assesses four types of explanations: (1) decision-maker explanations focusing on Putin’s personality traits and worldviews; (2) domestic political accounts emphasizing the Kremlin’s efforts to deflect attention from internal failures; (3) ideational accounts explaining Russia’s near abroad assertion with reference to its national identity and desire for international status; and (4) geopolitical accounts highlighting power and security considerations. The article shows that each approach offers some valuable insights but fails to provide a convincing stand-alone explanation. It is argued that to overcome the identified shortcomings, scholars need to devote more attention to building synthetic accounts. A theoretical model is outlined that specifies how geopolitical pressures, ideas, domestic political conditions, and decision-maker influences interact in shaping Russia’s near abroad policy.