Partial Identification of Causal Effects Using Proxy Variables

Proximal causal inference is a recently proposed framework for evaluating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. For point identification of causal effects, it leverages a pair of so-called treatment and outcome confounding proxy variables, to identify a bridge function that matches the dependence of potential outcomes or treatment variables on the hidden factors to corresponding functions of observed proxies. Unique identification of a causal effect via a bridge function crucially requires that proxies are sufficiently relevant for hidden factors, a requirement that has previously been formalized as a completeness condition. However, completeness is well-known not to be empirically testable, and although a bridge function may be well-defined, lack of completeness, sometimes manifested by availability of a single type of proxy, may severely limit prospects for identification of a bridge function and thus a causal effect; therefore, potentially restricting the application of the proximal causal framework. In this paper, we propose partial identification methods that do not require completeness and obviate the need for identification of a bridge function. That is, we establish that proxies of unobserved confounders can be leveraged to obtain bounds on the causal effect of the treatment on the outcome even if available information does not suffice to identify either a bridge function or a corresponding causal effect of interest. Our bounds are non-smooth functionals of the observed data distribution. As a consequence, in the context of inference, we initially provide a smooth approximation of our bounds. Subsequently, we leverage bootstrap confidence intervals on the approximated bounds. We further establish analogous partial identification results in related settings where identification hinges upon hidden mediators for which proxies are available.