Ecological Risk in Coastal Ecosystems: Assessment in Two Municipalities in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Ecological risk assessment of ecosystems facing anthropogenic pressures informs coastal management. This study evaluated the ecological risk of ecosystems in two coastal municipalities in the Gulf of California, Mexico. The coastal area under study spans 175 km of coastline and includes various ecosystems, as well as the cities of Guaymas and Empalme (~160,000 inhabitants). Ecological risk was assessed by surveying the opinions of experts on local and global activities and influences (climate change), the ecological consequences of hazards, and the resilience (fragmentation) and natural recovery of ecosystems. In addition, potential synergies between human activities and the effects of climate change were identified. The results showed that the main threats are discharges of raw or poorly treated wastewater into the sea, the generation and dumping of garbage, and illegal fishing. Wastewater discharges represent the local threat that interacts most intensively with the effects of climate change. Mangroves, coastal water bodies, and rocky shores face the greatest ecological risk due to continuous exposure to anthropogenic threats, poorly planned urban growth, and industrial development. Approximately 20% of the coastal zone is estimated to correspond to the metropolitan areas of Guaymas and Empalme, where the greatest ecological risk occurs, and these represent opportunities to promote coastal management processes aimed at ecosystem restoration and planned urban development to prevent the loss of coastal ecosystem functions and the services they provide to society.