Vulnerability and risk assessment of the coexistence of oil and fishing industries in the Southern Gulf of Mexico

In the southern Gulf of Mexico, the oil and fishing industries coexist in a complex, historically unbalanced relationship that remains insufficiently documented. Constructing spatially explicit knowledge about these interactions is essential to inform decision-making, reduce conflicts among regional stakeholders and in the end, benefit the parties through marine territorial planning that enables stronger governance elements for a socioenvironmental responsible coexistence in the seascape. This study assessed the spatial overlap between the space used by industrial and small-scale fishing fleets and oil industry-related operations-including vessel traffic, marine infrastructure, and oil spills-through quantitative vulnerability and risk analyses. We integrated multi-source spatial data to evaluate both individual and cumulative vulnerabilities, as well as the risk of interactions between fishing fleets' space use and surface oil presence. Results highlighted two high-vulnerable and high-risk zones: (1) the eastern coast of Tabasco and western coast of Campeche, where small-scale fishing fleets face constant exposure to large vessels, oil platforms, and pipelines; and (2) industrial fishing fleets at the north of Ciudad del Carmen, which showed a higher probability of encountering surface oil. These findings represent a significant contribution to the understanding of risk in maritime spaces where small-scale fisheries and a recently declared marine protected area coexist with the oil industry. Our framework offers a foundation for integrated territorial management that seeks to reduce conflicts between oil extraction and fishing activities, while supporting broader conservation goals in one of Mexico's most ecologically and economically important marine regions.