Volatility Spillovers and Interdependencies: The Nexus of Biofuel, Food, and Crude Oil Prices During the COVID-19 Pandemic-A VECM-CCC-GARCH

This paper investigates the dynamic linkages and volatility transmission among global food prices, biofuel commodity prices, and crude oil prices, with a focus on the profound disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While interdependencies between energy and agricultural markets are well-studied, the specific role of biofuels as a transmission channel and the exacerbating effects of the crisis remain underexplored, especially through a robust multivariate volatility framework. Utilizing A VECM-CCC-GARCH models, this study captures both mean and conditional variance dynamics, allowing for the examination of asymmetric news impacts and volatility spillovers. The analysis employs a comprehensive dataset including the FAO Food Price Index, key biofuel, ethanol, biodiesel, and crude oil prices (Brent and WTI), alongside proxies for the pandemic’s severity. The research hypothesizes that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly amplified the volatility and strengthened the price transmission channels. We expect to find increased co-movement and volatility spillovers, reflecting reduced demand for transport fuels, agricultural supply chain disruptions, and shifting biofuel production incentives. The TARCH component will discern if negative news (e.g., sharp drops in oil demand) had a disproportionately larger impact on volatility than positive news. By providing a nuanced understanding of these complex interdependencies, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers addressing food security, energy transition strategies, and macroeconomic stability in the post-pandemic world, particularly concerning the strategic role of biofuels.