Costs and benefits of highly ambitious energy transition pathways for Europe

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Climate change and energy crises push Europe to accelerate the energy-industry transition towards higher shares of renewable energy and a more efficient integrated electricity-based energy-industry system. The study examines transition scenarios ranging from carbon neutrality reached in 2050 to highest ambitions with 100% renewable electricity supply reached by 2030 and an overall carbon-neutral energy-industry system by 2035. The fastest transition coincidences with higher cost, but still with an acceptable tolerance. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2040 allows for a substantial reduction in CO 2 emissions and energy costs are lower compared to the fastest transition. Allowing e-fuel imports substantially reduces the energy cost in Europe compared to complete energy sovereignty, with an optimal import share at only 7% of primary energy demand. Reaching an affordable energy supply requires close cooperation of European countries to exploit the best renewable resources and all sources of energy system flexibility to enable a low-cost energy supply. • Defossilisation of European energy system does not require rapid FED reduction • Renewables and electrification of all sectors are central to the energy transition • 1.5°C target is possible without large-scale nuclear power or CCS • Enhanced interregional cooperation is crucial for a successful transition • Batteries, flexible electrolysers, and grids are key for energy system balancing • Self-sufficiency is possible, but limited e-fuels’ imports help reduce energy cost