Land-Use Transitions and Land-Based Carrying Capacity in Philippine State Universities and Colleges under RA 11396

Republic Act No. 11396 requires Philippine State Universities and Colleges (SUCs) to classify landholdings into functional cores and align development with projected demand. A comparative case study was conducted for three SUCs representing contrasting site contexts: highland (Central Mindanao University, CMU), lowland (Davao del Sur State College, DSSC), and coastal (Sulu State College, SuSC). LUDIP land-use tables and GIS-derived area inventories were harmonized to RA 11396 cores and analyzed under existing and proposed scenarios. Percentage-point shifts by core were used to identify whether institutions prioritize research expansion, support infrastructure, or production-land conversion, while a land-based carrying-capacity module combined historical enrollment and LUDIP projection series to compute 2031 gross density and academic-core density. The results show distinct transition archetypes. CMU reallocates land toward academic and research functions under relatively low density pressure, indicating a research-enabling expansion pathway. In contrast, DSSC and SuSC exhibit stronger shifts toward allied services and administrative support while facing substantially higher projected gross and academic-core densities, suggesting that future compliance will depend less on horizontal expansion and more on vertical densification and space-efficiency strategies. These findings support an evidence chain linking statutory land-use mandates to measurable spatial change and practical capacity constraints in campus planning.