• A linear ensemble deep learning approach was proposed for Arctic rivers streamflow prediction. • Streamflow in six Arctic basins is projected to increase by 6.1%-15.3% by 2080–2100. • Arctic river streamflow is more sensitive to warming during the early stage of permafrost degradation. • Winter streamflow is projected to increase 1.7–8.7 times faster than annual streamflow during 2080–2100. Rapid Arctic warming is significantly altering the hydrological regimes of northern high-latitude rivers, with profound impacts for terrestrial water cycles, regional ecosystems, and global climate feedback. In this study, we develop a linear ensemble deep learning approach (LEDLA) that integrates multiple distinct deep learning architectures through linear ensemble meta -models, leveraging their complementary strengths to quantify the river discharge using hydrometeorological variables and project six major Arctic rivers’ streamflow under four Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. In the testing dataset, LEDLA obtains 0.5%–10.6% improvement in NSE across various Arctic watershed streamflow predictions, demonstrating that integrating complementary deep learning architectures enhances prediction accuracy and robustness. Projections for 2080–2100 indicate annual streamflow increases of 6.1%–15.3% across six major Arctic watersheds under SSP126-SSP585 scenarios relative to the 2000–2020 baseline. The Kolyma River basin, which is fully covered by the continuous permafrost, is projected to experience the most substantial streamflow increases (32.2%–47.3%). Our results reveal complex permafrost-streamflow dynamics: initially, permafrost degradation suppresses streamflow sensitivity to warming (as observed in the Kolyma River basin, with 100% permafrost covered) while enhancing precipitation-driven responses (as in the Lena River basin, 95% permafrost covered). However, under continued warming and reduced permafrost extent, rising evapotranspiration becomes the dominant control, leading to streamflow declines, such as a 2.4%–8.4% reduction projected for the Ob River (39% permafrost covered) by 2050–2100 compared to 2023–2050. Winter streamflow is projected to rise 1.7–8.7 times relative to historical means, rising by 27%–393% under SSP126-SSP585, with diminished seasonality and muted spring freshet peaks by the end of the century. Streamflow changes are most pronounced under SSP585, driven by accelerated warming and intensifying freeze–thaw transitions. These findings underscore the critical role of permafrost–hydrology interactions in modulating Arctic river discharge and highlight the need to incorporate such dynamics into Earth system models and adaptive water resource planning under rapid climate change.
Liu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.