Key result
A recurrent probabilistic neural network predicts acute hypotension with ~93% accuracy and forecasts impending VF.
Why the study?
Most existing efforts to predict acute clinical deterioration events target only a single symptom.
Does a recurrent probabilistic neural network-based method accurately predict acute hypotension and ventricular fibrillation in ICU patients?
Does a recurrent probabilistic neural network-based method accurately predict acute hypotension and ventricular fibrillation in ICU patients?
Absolute Event Rate: 92.5% vs 92.5%
A novel recurrent probabilistic neural network can accurately predict acute clinical deterioration such as hypotension and ventricular fibrillation minutes before occurrence using standard biological signals.
In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting acute clinical deterioration triggered by hypotension, ventricular fibrillation, and an undiagnosed multiple disease condition using biological signals, such as heart rate, RR interval, and blood pressure. Efforts trying to predict such acute clinical deterioration events have received much attention from researchers lately, but most of them are targeted to a single symptom. The distinctive feature of the proposed method is that the occurrence of the event is manifested as a probability by applying a recurrent probabilistic neural network, which is embedded with a hidden Markov model and a Gaussian mixture model. Additionally, its machine learning scheme allows it to learn from the sample data and apply it to a wide range of symptoms. The performance of the proposed method was tested using a dataset provided by Physionet and the University of Tokyo Hospital. The results show that the proposed method has a prediction accuracy of 92.5% for patients with acute hypotension and can predict the occurrence of ventricular fibrillation 5 min before it occurs with an accuracy of 82.5%. In addition, a multiple disease condition can be predicted 7 min before they occur, with an accuracy of over 90%.
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Tsuji et al. (2020) studied Acute hypotension, ventricular fibrillation, and multiple disease conditions (n=135). Recurrent probabilistic neural network (R-LLGMN) vs. Previous prediction methods (e.g., Henriques et al.) was evaluated on Prediction accuracy for acute hypotension. The recurrent probabilistic neural network-based method predicted acute hypotension with 92.5% accuracy, ventricular fibrillation 5 minutes prior with 82.5% accuracy, and multiple disease conditions 7 minutes prior with over 90% accuracy.
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