Assessing Response of Water Footprint of Maize Production to Drought in China: Different Climate Scenarios and Irrigation Strategies

Climate change impacts on water resources and drought characteristics will significantly affect regional agricultural water security. To clarify the response mechanism of water consumption and drought, this study coupled meteorological data from CMIP6 under two shared socioeconomic pathways in China. We used the 6‐month timescale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI‐6) and the AquaCrop model to quantify drought and the water footprint of maize production (WFprod), respectively. The study explored the response of WFprod to drought and its dominant processes from 2030 to 2099 over China. Results indicated that most regions exhibited intensifying drought trends, while limited areas showed wetting tendencies, with more pronounced trend magnitudes under SSP245. WFprod showed a more significant trend of change under SSP585, particularly a decreasing trend, with a broader affected area compared to SSP245. WFprod exhibited a negative correlation with the SPEI‐6 in most provinces, especially under SSP585. Under SSP245, the response of WFprod to drought in northern regions was primarily governed by physiological processes represented by yield, while in southern regions, it was mainly governed by physical processes related to crop water requirement. Under SSP585 scenario, the opposite was observed. Full irrigation could mitigate the negative impact of intensified drought on crop water use efficiency to some extent. However, in wetter regions, irrigation could increase possibility of higher water footprint. We revealed the response of WFprod to drought, providing a new perspective for water management under climate change.