Forecasting Environmental Pollution by Asphalt Concrete Plants Based on Mathematical Modeling in Conditions of Climate Instability

The theoretical and practical aspects of predicting the dispersion of harmful impurities in atmospheric air in conditions of modern climatic instability are explored in this paper. The fundamental principles of mathematical modeling of emissions from asphalt concrete plants (ACPs) are analyzed, in particular, the features of the application of the Gaussian plume model and the OND-86 methodology. The main focus is on identifying methodological gaps in current environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures, which are based on static meteorological parameters and do not take into account the risks caused by anomalous “heat waves”. Based on a real industrial facility (an asphalt mixing plant in Vinnytsia region), a series of numerical experiments were performed to simulate the distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in a wide temperature range (from -10 to +40 °C). The modeling results demonstrated that extreme heat is a critical factor coursed the increase of ground-level concentrations of the pollutant and the approach of the pollution epicenter to the emission source. The practical part of the investigation was implemented through cartographic visualization of concentration fields with reference to the topography of settlements. It has been proved that at abnormally high air temperatures (+40 °C and above), a decrease in the effective emission height is observed due to a decrease in the thermal gradient, which can lead to the coverage of residential buildings with concentrations that significantly exceed the regulatory MAC (Maximum Allowable Concentration). A scientifically based strategy for adaptive management of asphalt concrete plants (AСP) is proposed, which involves dynamic adjustment of technological cycles and the implementation of predictive air basin monitoring systems. The conclusions of the work can be used to improve environmental regulations and justify the boundaries of sanitary protection zones of road industry enterprises