The Common Prosperity Effect of Cultural and Tourism Integration in China’s Pearl River–Xijiang Economic Belt: Spatial Spillovers and Siphoning Risks

Cultural-tourism integration (CTI) is increasingly regarded as a strategic pathway toward common prosperity (CP). Drawing on balanced panel data from 11 prefecture-level cities in the Pearl River–Xijiang Economic Belt (2013–2022), this study employs a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to estimate CTI’s effects on CP. A pronounced ‘east–strong, west–weak’ spatial pattern generates positive spatial spillovers to neighboring regions. At the same time, the significantly negative spatial autoregressive coefficient points to potential spatial polarization. Gains in core areas may be accompanied by relative stagnation in peripheries. CTI’s impact is markedly stronger on economic affluence than on equitable sharing, and control variables such as industrial structure and infrastructure even exhibit negative spillovers in some cases. Overall, while CTI can act as a regional connectivity mechanism, its prosperity dividends are not automatically inclusive. Strengthening cross-jurisdictional coordination and prioritizing equitable distribution of public services could help mitigate polarization risks and translate economic integration into broadly shared well-being.