Integrating fossil data in ecological niche models to improve predictions of future habitat of Caribbean corals

more in 2100). Although our models showed that suitable habitats existed for most corals in 2100, the amount declined dramatically (45-100% decrease in area from the present day), there was a significant restriction of lower latitude habitat suitability, and marine protected areas did not overlap the majority of predicted future suitable habitat (8-20% overlap by 2100). Fossil-informed models expanded niche estimates in environmental space and incorporated environmental conditions not represented in modern data, resulting in broader projections of future habitat. Our results suggest that actions to reduce emissions and expand protected areas in the northern Caribbean are imperative to prevent significant degradation and that using fossil occurrences in niche estimation can improve the reliability of conservation forecasting, an approach that is transferable across taxa and regions.