From risk perception to readiness: understanding US wildfire preparedness drivers

Abstract Background Wildfires in the USA are becoming more frequent and severe as climate change and population growth expand exposure in fire-prone regions. Understanding the human dimensions of wildfire preparedness—particularly how individuals perceive risk, build awareness, and develop evacuation readiness—is critical for effective fire management. Methods This study examines cognitive, experiential, behavioral, and sociodemographic predictors of wildfire preparedness using the wildfire-specific subsample ( n = 509) from the 2023 FEMA National Household Survey. Generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) was used to analyze three key outcomes: readiness awareness, evacuation readiness, and perceived wildfire risk. Results Results show that readiness awareness and preparedness self-efficacy were the strongest predictors of evacuation readiness, indicating that actionable knowledge and preparedness self-efficacy play a more decisive role in preparedness than perceived risk alone. Direct wildfire experience meaningfully increased both awareness and perceived risk, underscoring the influence of prior exposure on preparedness orientations. Sociodemographic disparities were also evident, with lower-income households reporting reduced evacuation readiness and older adults demonstrating lower awareness. Geographic differences in perceived risk followed known gradients of wildfire exposure, with residents outside California reporting substantially lower perceived vulnerability. Conclusions Overall, the findings demonstrate that strengthening awareness and self-efficacy—rather than increasing risk perception alone—is central to improving wildfire evacuation readiness. These results highlight the need for preparedness strategies that prioritize clear information, preparedness self-efficacy-building interventions, and equitable support for socially vulnerable populations. By integrating behavioral, cognitive, and sociodemographic predictors, this study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of community wildfire resilience in an era of escalating fire hazards.