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forcing, towards either recovery or a multi-century collapsed state. This divergence arises from the accumulation of stochastic noise near the AMOC stability threshold, characterized by persistent high-pressure anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic. In other words, internal atmospheric variability can push the AMOC across its stability threshold and trigger collapse, aided by the basin-wide salt-advection feedback. A modest delay in implementing mitigation further increases the likelihood of crossing this threshold, amplifying the risk of collapse. This study underscores high uncertainties in future climate projections in response to climate mitigation efforts and highlights the urgent need for strong and immediate international actions.
Oh et al. (Sat,) studied this question.