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A method for estimating the relative likelihood of failure of embankment dams by piping, the University of New South Wales (UNSW) method, is based on an analysis of historic failures and accidents in embankment dams. The likelihood of failure of a dam by piping is estimated by adjusting the historical frequency of piping failure by weighting factors which take into account the dam zoning, filters, age of the dam, core soil types, compaction, foundation geology, dam performance, and monitoring and surveillance. The method is intended only for preliminary assessments, as a ranking method for portfolio risk assessments, to identify dams to prioritise for more detailed studies, and as a check on event-tree methods. Information about the time interval in which piping failure developed and the warning signs which were observed suggest that the piping process often develops rapidly, giving little time for remedial action. In the piping accidents, the piping process reached some limiting condition allowing sufficient time to draw down the reservoir or carry out remedial works to prevent breaching.Key words: dams, failures, risk, probability, piping.
Foster et al. (Sun,) studied this question.