POSSUM and Portsmouth POSSUM for predicting mortality

BACKGROUND: There is a need for an accurate measure of surgical outcomes so that hospitals and surgeons can be compared properly regardless of case mix. POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity) uses a physiological score and an operative severity score to calculate risks of mortality and morbidity. In a previous small study it was found that Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM; a modification of the POSSUM system) provided a more accurate prediction of mortality. METHODS: Some 10000 general surgical interventions (excluding paediatric and day cases) were studied prospectively between August 1993 and November 1995. The POSSUM mortality equation was applied to the full 10000 surgical episodes. The 10000 patients were arranged in chronological order and the first 2500 were used as a training set to produce the modified P-POSSUM predictor equation. This was then applied prospectively to the remaining 7500 patients arranged chronologically in five groups of 1500. RESULTS: The original POSSUM logistic regression equation for mortality overpredicts the overall risk of death by more than twofold and the risk of death for patients at lowest risk (5 per cent or less) by more than sevenfold. The P-POSSUM equation produced a very close fit with the observed in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: P-POSSUM provides an accurate method for comparative surgical audit.