Does AMH Relate to Timing of Menopause? Results of an Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

CONTEXT: Anti-Müllerian hormone based (AMH) age at menopause predictions remain cumbersome due to predictive inaccuracy. OBJECTIVE: To perform an Individual Patient Data (IPD) meta-analysis, regarding AMH based menopause prediction. DATA SOURCES: A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies regarding menopause prediction using serum AMH levels were selected by consensus discussion. DATA SELECTION: Individual cases were included if experiencing a regular cycle at baseline. Exclusion criteria were hormone use and gynecological surgery. DATA SYNTHESIS: 2596 women were included, 1077 experienced menopause. A multivariable Cox regression analysis assessed time to menopause (TTM) using age and AMH. AMH predicted TTM, however, added value on top of age was poor (age alone C-statistic 84%; age + AMH HR 0.66 95% CI 0.61-0.71, C-statistic 86%). Moreover, the capacity of AMH to predict early (≤45 years) and late menopause (≥55 years) was assessed. An added effect of AMH was demonstrated for early menopause (age alone C-statistic 52%; age + AMH HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.24-0.45, C-statistic 80%). A Weibull regression model calculating individual age at menopause revealed that predictive inaccuracy remained present and increased with decreasing age at menopause. Lastly, a check of non-proportionality of the predictive effect of AMH demonstrated a reduced predictive effect with increasing age. CONCLUSION: AMH was a significant predictor of TTM and especially of time to early menopause. However, individual predictions of age at menopause demonstrated a limited precision, particularly when concerning early age at menopause, making clinical application troublesome.