Global epidemiological trends, distribution of NTDs and malaria, and disease burden projections for the next 15 years

Background This study investigates global and regional trends in the burden of malaria and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) from 1990 to 2021, focusing on their changing patterns and influencing factors. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 (GBD study 2021), we analyzed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of malaria and NTDs at both regional and global levels. A vector autoregression (VAR) model was employed to explore the effects of the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), environmental risks, and behavioral risks and to predict the disease burden over the next 15 years. The study highlights the geographical distribution and variations in risk factors associated with malaria and NTDs, offering public health recommendations for their elimination. Methods This research used data from the GBD study 2021 to examine annual incidence rates (age-standardized incidence rate, ASIR), mortality rates (age-standardized death rate, ASDR), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for malaria and NTDs by region, age, and sex. Joinpoint software was applied to analyze time trends from 1990 to 2021. A VAR model incorporating factors such as the SDI, unsafe water sources, sanitation, and handwashing practices was employed to identify significant risk factors influencing disease burden and to project future trends. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of malaria decreased, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, while the incidence of NTDs increased until 2016 and then decreased. Age-standardized DALYs and ASDR for NTDs showed a steady decline, reflecting the impact of effective interventions. The VAR model showed that the SDI influenced both malaria and NTD burdens, especially in low-SDI regions, with environmental sanitation and unsafe behavioral factors significantly impacting malaria. Conclusion Strengthening environmental sanitation and international cooperation can reduce the burden of malaria and NTDs. Future public health efforts should focus on enhancing infrastructure, particularly in low-SDI regions, to combat challenges posed by climate change and to support the ongoing elimination of malaria and NTDs.