The causal effect of iterative changes in table tennis rules on the technical and tactical system: An empirical test based on Markov chain and decision tree models

This study examines the dynamic impact of recent reforms in table tennis, particularly innovations in ball material, competition time, and service rules, on the sport's technical and tactical evolution. Previous research has largely focused on isolated rule changes, lacking a systemic framework for causal inference. This study integrates a difference-in-differences model, Markov chain, and decision tree algorithm to explore the interplay between rule adjustments, technical compensation, and equilibrium reconstruction. Empirical analysis using multi-period data from top-level international competitions reveals that: increased ball diameter reduces scoring efficiency, shifting focus to multi-shot stability; the eleven-point system accelerates tactical radicalization but increases risk during critical points; and rule changes in unobstructed service enhance the diffusion of receiving techniques. The findings highlight nonlinear threshold effects and differentiated adaptation pathways shaped by equipment parameters, competition structure, and athlete technical styles. The study proposes strategies to improve stability during stalemate segments, enhance psychological training for high-pressure moments, and optimize equipment, offering insights for training, tactical design, and policy development in competitive table tennis.