The Impact of Accelerated Gas Price Growth on the Russian Economy

The reduction in gas export supplies has led to a significant decrease in revenue for the gas industry and the state budget. In order to compensate for these losses and stimulate the development of gas infrastructure, the Russian government has decided to accelerate the increase in domestic natural gas prices for all consumer categories. Using the IEF RAS modeling toolkit, this article analyzes the impact made by the policy of accelerated increase in gas prices on key parameters of economic development such as sectoral output, price dynamics, and household consumption. The volume and structure of household consumption under changing natural gas prices is assessed through the PADS methodology. It is demonstrated that the accelerated rise in gas prices will lead to a slowdown in GDP growth, accelerated inflation, and a reduction in household consumption of socially significant goods and services, including healthcare, thereby creating social and demographic risks.