Hedging as a Security Strategy for Restrained Middle Powers: The Case of Türkiye

The growing multipolarity of the international order in recent years has garnered a renewed interest in middle-power behavior in international politics. A similar trend can also be observed in categorizing them based on different factors. This article draws on the distinction between overambitious and restrained middle powers and argues that the hedging strategy can provide a well-suited framework for a distinct restrained middle power identity. The focus will be on Türkiye’s attitude toward Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. The analysis suggests that the hedging strategy offers a viable alternative for Türkiye in responding to contemporary challenges and increasing its gains. Moreover, it is also reliable for other restrained middle powers facing a geopolitical landscape characterized by tension, conflict, and an increasingly assertive local rising great power.