Exploring the nexus of climate change and vector-borne disease transmission

Climate change is a critical global challenge that significantly impacts the redistribution of malaria endemicity worldwide. While efforts have been made to model malaria transmission using climatic factors, relying solely on these factors can lead to discrepancies and ineffective decision-making. To address this, we used the VECTRI model-a dynamic framework developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) that integrates both climatic and entomological factors-to map malaria risk for India and project its potential future under the SSP370 warming scenario. Our findings indicate that the length of malaria transmission is expected to increase across India by the end of this century. The shift of malaria endemicity to further north and also into highland areas could increase the at-risk population due to lower immunity in these regions. Therefore, integrated climate and entomological modeling is essential for effectively anticipating malaria transmission risks and enhancing public health responses.