Key result
The logistic EuroSCORE lost calibration for adult cardiac surgery over a 10-year period, with the observed-to-expected mortality ratio falling from 0.76 to 0.37 despite maintaining good discrimination.
Why the study?
Does the logistic EuroSCORE maintain accurate calibration for predicting in-hospital mortality in contemporary adult cardiac surgery?
Population
317,292 cardiac surgery procedures performed at all National Health Service and some private hospitals in…
Design
Cohort
Follow-up
in-hospital
Authors
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Warrants caution using logistic EuroSCORE for contemporary risk stratification; supports regular revalidation of surgical prediction models.
Observational (n=317,292)
Yes
Does the logistic EuroSCORE maintain accurate calibration for predicting in-hospital mortality in contemporary adult cardiac surgery?
The logistic EuroSCORE has progressively lost calibration over time due to dynamic changes in patient risk factors and case-mix, highlighting the necessity for regular revalidation of clinical prediction models.
Hickey et al. (2012) conducted an observational in Adult cardiac surgery (n=317,292). Logistic EuroSCORE was evaluated on In-hospital mortality. The logistic EuroSCORE lost calibration for adult cardiac surgery over a 10-year period, with the observed-to-expected mortality ratio falling from 0.76 to 0.37 despite maintaining good discrimination.
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