A system has an unknown number of faults. Each fault causes a failure of the system, and is then located and removed. The failure times are independent exponential random variables with common mean. A Bayesian analysis of this model is presented, with emphasis on the situation where vague prior knowledge is represented by limiting, improper, prior forms. This provides a test for reliability growth estimates of the number of faults, an evaluation of current system reliability, and a prediction of the time to full debugging. Three examples are given.
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Adrian E. Raftery (1988) studied this question.
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