Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models

In this paper we develop some statistical theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors, which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We propose a panel Cp criterion and show that the number of factors can be consistently estimated using the criterion. The theory is developed under the framework of large cross-sections (N) and large time dimensions (T). No restriction is imposed on the relation between N and T. Simulations show that the proposed criterion yields almost precise estimates of the number of factors for configurations of the panel data encountered in practice. The idea that variations in a large number of economic variables can be modelled bya small number of reference variables is appealing and is used in manyeconomic analysis. In the finance literature, the arbitrage pricing theory(APT) of Ross (1976) assumes that a small number of factors can be used to explain a large number of asset returns.