Predictors of Academic and Progression Outcomes in Undergraduate Nursing Education: A Scoping Review and the Admission-Adaptation-Outcome Model

]To synthesize current evidence on predictors of retention and success in undergraduate nursing education and to advance a process-oriented conceptualization of student success through the development of the Admission-Adaptation-Outcome (AAO) model. Retention of nursing students is a critical challenge in global workforce shortages. Although many studies examined predictors of academic success, evidence remains fragmented, largely focused on isolated variables rather than on how student success develops over time. A scoping review was conducted in accordance with the Arksey and O’Malley framework and reported following PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Three databases (PubMed, CINAHL and Scopus) were systematically searched for studies published between 2013 and 2025. Studies examining predictors of academic and progression outcomes among undergraduate nursing students were included. Data were synthesized using a descriptive and thematic approach. Nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Five domains of predictors were identified: pre-admission academic indicators, standardized testing measures, demographic characteristics, non-academic attributes and early academic performance. Pre-admission academic achievement, particularly cumulative and science GPA, was the most frequently examined and consistently associated predictor. In contrast, early academic performance, especially first-year GPA and foundational course achievement, showed the strongest and most consistent predictive value for student success, particularly for progression and licensure outcomes. Findings for standardized tests and non-academic factors were variable. Findings suggest that student success is best understood as a staged process rather than a set of independent predictors. The proposed AAO model highlights early academic adaptation as a key mechanism linking admission characteristics to long-term outcomes. • Early academic performance shows the strongest predictive value for nursing student success • Pre-admission indicators are the most frequently examined and consistently associated predictors • Standardized admission tests demonstrate variable predictive utility • Student success follows a staged Admission-Adaptation-Outcome pathway • The AAO model reframes success as a dynamic process, not isolated predictors