Biodiversity mainstreaming in Maritime Spatial Planning. Co-construction and analysis of scenarios in Pilot Areas

The MSP4BIODIVERSITY project (2023–2026) is part of the Spoke 2 research line of the Italian National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) funded by the Next Generation EU - National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The project developed and tested an innovative methodology for integrating biodiversity considerations into Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) through participatory, ecosystem-based, and science-driven approaches. The methodology combines Social-Ecological System (SES) analysis, scenario development, spatial planning measures, and advanced modelling tools within a coherent and integrated analytical framework. A key innovation of the project lies in the co-development and evaluation of alternative maritime futures through close collaboration among scientists, stakeholders, and institutional actors, ensuring both scientific robustness and policy relevance. Three alternative scenarios — Slow Pace, Nature@Work, and Blue Development — were designed to explore different balances among biodiversity conservation, technological innovation, and blue economy growth. The approach integrates qualitative narratives with quantitative modelling in order to assess the ecological, socio-economic, governance, and climate-related implications of different planning pathways. An important contribution of the project was the adaptation of the “ten tenets” framework, enabling a multidimensional evaluation of sustainability, feasibility, inclusiveness, resilience, and governance effectiveness. The methodology was applied and tested in three Italian pilot areas: the Northern Adriatic Sea, the Strait of Sicily, and the Northern Tyrrhenian and Ligurian Sea. The participatory MareFuturo workshops further strengthened the legitimacy, relevance, and practical applicability of the scenarios by integrating scientific knowledge with local expertise, stakeholder perspectives, and societal values. Overall, the MSP4BIODIVERSITY methodology demonstrates strong potential to support the future implementation and revision of Italian MSP plans through adaptive, evidence-based, and ecosystem-oriented planning processes.