Explaining the Gap in Upward Transfer Rates Between Economically Advantaged and Disadvantaged Community College Students

Using administrative data, we estimate models of community college students’ upward transfer decisions and compute each covariate’s contribution to the gap in transfer rates between economically advantaged and disadvantaged students and, alternatively, between white and Black students. We find that college entry age, completed credits, and enrollment duration account for over 50% of the economically advantaged–disadvantaged gap and 92% of the racial/ethnic gap; this combined effect is robust to alternative definitions of transfer. Many other factors are associated with increased transfer rates, but our findings suggest that economically disadvantaged, Black, and Hispanic students cannot catch up to their peers in transfer rates without starting college earlier and earning more credits—changes that are likely to require pre-college interventions and financial assistance.