Closing the Gap Between Threat and Rival

This article explores the advantages and risks associated with leveraging interstate rivalry frameworks for strategy development and planning. Advantages include reducing strategic uncertainty and gaining efficiencies in some aspects of force planning. Risks include trusting the data and accepting the methodical pace of research. United States security documents typically describe adversaries as threats or competitors but rarely acknowledge the fact that behavior patterns among interstate rivals, of which the United States currently has three—China, Russia, and Iran—differ fundamentally from those of mere threats or competitors. This analysis will benefit defense professionals responsible for developing regional or global strategies and for directing war-gaming efforts.