The Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Communities in Tourism Precincts

Weather and climate variability have been widely acknowledged as increasingly influencing tourism performance and destination sustainability. While previous studies on tourism climatology have mainly focused on tourist demand and macroeconomic impacts, limited attention has been paid to the perceptions and behavioral responses of host communities residing in tourism precincts. This study contributes toward filling this research gap by investigating how residents in three major tourism hubs in Kenya, Nairobi (urban), Mombasa (coastal), and Maasai Mara (nature-based), perceive weather variability and how such perceptions influence climate mitigation behaviors. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the protection motivation theory (PMT), the study conceptualizes weather sensitivity as a precursor to risk appraisal and the formation of behavioral intentions. A structured questionnaire was used in collecting data from 367 residents who responded on various measures of weather sensitivity and mitigation actions on a 5-point Likert scale. Reliability analysis confirms acceptable internal consistency (α = .84 for weather sensitivity; α = .79 for mitigation behavior). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) results reveal statistically significant differences across age groups and levels of income dependence on tourism. Older residents exhibit higher perceived climate risk, while individuals who are moderately dependent on tourism income demonstrate stronger mitigation engagement than those who are fully dependent on tourism. Comparative analysis across destination types further highlights context-specific vulnerability patterns. The findings extend tourism–climate scholarship by integrating behavioral theory into community-level research on climate perception. Policy implications include developing weather-indexed insurance schemes for tourism operators, real-time climate communication systems, flexible booking mechanisms, and targeted climate education strategies tailored to demographic and economic profiles. The study contributes a micro-level behavioral perspective to tourism resilience discourse in climate-vulnerable destinations.