Rising temperatures, driven by global climate change, are profoundly altering high-latitude ecosystems, influencing vegetation phenology and productivity. However, understanding the long-term, nuanced responses of these ecosystems remains a critical challenge. Soil warming experiments have served as useful tools for understanding these shifts. However, many of these studies have relied on a single measure, predominantly the Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI), measured at a single level of warming. This approach often fails to separate structural greening from underlying physiological responses. To address these gaps, this study provided a comprehensive snapshot assessment of growing season vegetation dynamics in a subarctic grassland ecosystem in Iceland that had been exposed to continuous geothermal soil warming for over 60 years. Using high-resolution multispectral drone imagery, twelve different vegetation indices (VIs) were derived to assess not only greenness but also physiological stress and photosynthetic efficiency across a range of mean annual soil temperatures (MATs). Using linear regression and redundancy analysis (RDA), the responses of these indices to warming and their relationships with other environmental drivers, such as standing biomass and plant nutrient concentrations (nitrogen and phosphorus), were analyzed. The results revealed significant positive linear relationships between most of the indices and MATs across the 5 to 11 °C range. This indicated that higher MATs led to increased biomass and structural growth, without revealing any significant thresholds or tipping points in vegetation response within the observed warming range. However, the Photochemical Reflectance (PRI) showed a significant negative relationship with warming, suggesting a decoupling between structural greening and photosynthetic light-use efficiency. Furthermore, RDA results indicated that, while most of the VIs were primarily driven by biomass, the decline in PRI was likely a compounding effect of physical canopy self-shading and plant phosphorus constraints. Ultimately, this study demonstrated that, while these subarctic grasslands exhibited local evidence of “Arctic greening” under further warming, multispectral drone remote sensing could detect underlying physiological adjustments and nutrient constraints that traditional greenness indices might overlook, providing a more nuanced understanding of ecosystem response.
Hamedpour et al. (Fri,) studied this question.