Are the remittance receipts of the South-Asian region resilient to the Covid-19 crisis? A peek into the future through the past

Studies from South Asia indicate that remittances do not only benefit recipients but also contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although remittances received have increased in the past, they may be affected by the ongoing pandemic. The Covid-19 crisis doesn't seem to affect the remittances of the region in the past year, but experts are expecting a negative impact in the future. Thus, the current examination is the first inference wherein the authors have tried to predict the remittances inflow of the region comprising India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan from 2020 to 2030 using a Box–Jenkins ARIMA-based model on the data collected from 1980–2019 and accordingly make recommendations to the policymakers. The findings revealed that remittances inflow were 2.28 percent of GDP at the end of 1980 on an average basis, then climbed to 4.70 percent of GDP by 2013, but are expected to remain constant at around 3.79 percent of GDP during 2020–2030, thereby proving remittance inflows of the region to be resilient during the period under consideration.