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May 18, 2026Statistics and Public PolicyOpen Access

Seventy Years of Electoral Fragmentation in Italy: Entropy, Rank-Size Modelling, and Cluster Analysis for Regime Identification

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Authors

SMStefano MarmaniVFValerio FiccadentiRMRaffaele Mattera

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Overview

Data-driven framework identifies electoral fragmentation regimes in Italy using municipal election data, highlighting political dynamics.

Key Points

  • This paper aims to develop a framework for detecting electoral fragmentation regimes in Italy from 1948 to 2018.
  • Utilized municipal data from national elections (1948–2018) for analysis of two parliamentary chambers.
  • Integrated B-ary entropy with rank-size modelling and applied k-means clustering to identify electoral regimes.
  • Analyzed the effects of major institutional reforms on electoral behavior across different periods.
  • Identified distinct electoral behavior periods linked to reforms such as Mattarellum, Porcellum, and Rosatellum.
  • Noted significant differences in fragmentation evolution between the Camera dei Deputati and Senato due to varying electoral rules.
  • Highlighted transitional turbulence during the 1992, 1994, and 1996 elections between Italy's First and Second Republic.

Cite This Study

Marmani et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0aabc25ba8ef6d83b6f6b0https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2026.2672976
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